Bay Soundings l Tampa Bay's Science and Nature News Journal

Water – shimmering above healthy seagrass beds, lapping against white-sand beaches or flowing through estuaries that nurture juvenile fish and crabs – makes the Tampa Bay region one of the most attractive places in the world.

But the sheer beauty of our region begs the question: How would it look after a Category 5 hurricane? Or how will our homes, offices and natural systems withstand the slower but more certain sea level rise that's already occurring at the rate of about an inch per decade?

For residents of a region where planning for a 100-year flood is considered prudent, it was amazing to hear that Dutch engineers have built structures designed to withstand an event predicted to occur once every 10,000 years.

For Dutch experts who visited Tampa Bay to share their expertise on flood control and living with water, the biggest difference they saw was the almost total lack of protection against major storms or slowly rising sea levels.

The three-day conference, called Resilient Tampa Bay 2011, raised nearly as many questions as it answered. The Dutch brought technical expertise, but little insight into how to communicate the need for action to residents and the leaders who will have to make tough choices to mitigate the inevitable effects of climate change.

Living with Water

The technology clearly exists. The Netherlands is 66% below sea level, located in a delta formed by the three major rivers that drain western Europe and just inland from the tumultuous North Sea. It's also one of the most densely populated deltas in the world and its ports are a major economic engine for the entire region.

While the Dutch have been building flood control structures for nearly 2,000 years, devastating floods in 1953 were the impetus for much of the modern construction, according to William Veerbeek, a research fellow at the Flood Resiliency Group, part of the United Nations' initiative for water education.

In the wake of that flood, a "technocratic, government-driven" Delta Committee began building massive dike rings and huge flood control structures that close the rivers to storm surges. More recent floods in 1993 and 1995 resulted in the Dutch taking a different tack to protect themselves. "We transitioned from fighting floods to living with water," Veerbeek said.

As part of that new tack, the Dutch moved to a "bottom-up," community-driven approach where the federal government provides funding and sets objectives for flood management, but local communities are responsible for identifying and then building projects that meet those goals.

That's resulted in developments like "Room for the River" where an inlet adjacent to the river provides additional capacity for flood waters so they're less likely to flow over land – along with recreational and ecological benefits. Other projects combine multiple types of housing, including houseboats and amphibious homes that rest on separate foundations and float in floods. In another neighborhood, a park built atop a massive dike provides opportunities for retail and recreation that connects communities which otherwise would have been divided.

Most people in the city of Rotterdam now recognize that they must manage and mitigate for climate change, he adds. "We're using climate change as a branding tool in the spectrum of competing cities."

Building with Nature

Another new emphasis is using natural systems rather than focusing entirely upon making man-made structures higher or stronger to accommodate extreme storms and sea level rise. Weak spots – identified in safety studies required every five years – are being reinforced by renourishing beaches and building shoals or marshes.

For instance, the "Sand Engine" was built with nearly 30 million cubic yards of sand to renourish beaches, shoals and marshes using natural wave action to deposit sediments. "It's sustainable flood protection," says Johan Stapel, a researcher at Wageningen University's Institute for Marine Resources and Ecosystem Studies. "It's an opportunity for nature to create biodiversity along with recreational/tourism and socio-economic developments. The resulting dunes, marshes and shoals provide better and less expensive protection."

And the Dutch have discovered that there is no final conclusion or best answer to climate change. "Sea level rise requires a process approach – it's not a project and we don't know what the end result will be," adds Paul Jansen of the Royal Haskoning.

Images from the U.S. Geological Survey document the damage to ecosystems along the shoreline.

Why Worry Now?

While debate continues over the cause of climate change and sea level rise, the impacts can already be seen, notes USF professor Daniel Yeh, "Coastal areas are increasingly at risk," he said. "Put aside the question of cause and go to the gauges – sea level has increased over the decades, and those inches over time translate into feet as water moves in horizontally."

The tide gauge of Key West, monitored since 1913, shows an increase of about an inch every decade. Salt marshes on Florida's west coast, which require very specific elevations, have moved inland 50 feet over the last 50 years.

As air temperatures rise, sea levels are likely to rise even more significantly, with predictions ranging from a low of about seven inches by 2100 to more than 53 inches over the same period. "There's a lot of uncertainty, but most scientists are expecting to see about a meter (39 inches) by the end of the century," Yeh said. At the same time, increasing air temperatures are more likely to cause stronger hurricanes along with increased flooding during the summer rainy season and even drier periods through the rest of the year.

Tampa Bay is particularly vulnerable to hurricanes. A strong storm striking mid-Pinellas County could push water so far into Tampa Bay that storm surges could top 20 feet in parts of Pinellas County and downtown Tampa. More than a million of the region's total 1.5 million structures could be damaged, with nearly a half-million totally destroyed. Across the region, damages of nearly $250 billion are expected when the loss of structures is combined with loss of use by commercial entities.

"We have three choices to deal with sea level rise – we can get out of the way (by moving inland), adjust structures to deal with rising water, or build barriers," Yeh said. But choosing to do nothing is still making a choice, Yeh adds. "If we don't do anything now, it may be too costly or impossible in the future."

Hurricane Charlie destroyed both homes and ecosystems when it ripped through low-lying areas of Southwest Florida. Experts predict stronger hurricanes as waters warm as well as the increased possibilty of damage as sea level rises.

Cities Step Forward

Around the world, metropolitan areas like Rotterdam, New York, Seattle and San Francisco are stepping forward as "Climate Ready Cities" that recognize the challenge and are taking necessary steps to adapt to sea level rise. Just south of Tampa Bay, the city of Punta Gorda has determined a series of actions to help the low-lying area prepare for climate change.

"We see climate change as an opportunity rather than a detriment," notes Jim Beever, principal planner for the Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council. "We may not agree on why it's happening, but we do agree that it is happening."

A top vulnerability identified in a series of workshops and public events is fish and wildlife habitats that will be wiped out unless they have room to move upland as sea level rises. The city already is surrounded by a wide buffer zone set aside in the 1970s before Charlotte Harbor was developed "specifically so we would not look like Tampa Bay," Beever quips.

The Punta Gorda climate change adaptation plan addresses those habitat issues by:

Another key point in the adaptation strategy is the redevelopment plan. "We're building a better, safer Punta Gorda," Beever said. "Most redevelopment plans make the same mistakes. New Orleans, for instance, is building homes right back in the same spot."

What's Next for Tampa Bay?

Although not specifically defined as climate change adaptations, local governments in the Tampa Bay region are taking steps to address some of the problems that are likely to occur. Wastewater treatment plants that ring the bay have back-up generators so they can run even if electricity is not available. New regulations at the state level are encouraging low-impact development that uses less water and electricity. Fewer houses are being built in flood-prone areas and more are being built in neighborhoods where an ecosystem approach to development has been taken.

Across the region, participants at the conference identified the top five vulnerabilities:

The Netherlands spends more than a billion dollars a year building and maintaining infrastructure improvements that protect it from rising water. "In the Netherlands, the focus is on reducing the probability of flooding," said Yvonne van Kruchten-Cuijpers, hydraulic engineer for the Dutch DHV. "Here, the focus is mainly on reducing the consequences of flooding."

There also are no clear answers on how the region could be protected. "Anything is feasible with enough resources, but first you need to define the problem and quantify the real risk," Veerbeek said.

The first step in protecting the region will be bringing business and government leaders together, preferably with strong grass-root support. "The question is whether it's going to take a crisis event like a hurricane for Tampa Bay residents to wake up and really see what's happening, or can we be pro-active and act without a crisis?" notes Brady Smith, senior planner with the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council.

This year marks the 90th anniversary of the last hurricane to hit the region – in 1921, even before they began naming storms – with sustained winds of 75 miles per hour and a storm surge of 10 to 12 feet. "There's no sense of vulnerability in the Tampa Bay area," Smith said. "We're world leaders in planning evacuations and coordinating emergency response with governments and business entities but we've focused on recovery not prevention."

That theme was repeated by multiple speakers, including Linda Saul-Sena, former member of the Tampa City Council and Ernest Estevez, director of the Center for Coast Ecology at Mote Marine Laboratory. "The question is how we bring decision makers to the table," said Frank Muller-Karger, USF professor and director of the International Oceans Institute. "The Netherlands have passed the point of 'if' they need to adopt, the question is how. But does Tampa Bay really want to wait for a catastrophic hurricane to take action?"

For more information, including audiotapes from the first day of the event, visit www.resilienttampabay.org.

The University of South Florida, including both its College of Marine Science and the Patel Center for Global Solutions, is planning two events that are likely to have world-wide impact.

First the Patel Center will develop a training program to help coastal cities around the world improve their resiliency. Using materials developed for Resilient Tampa Bay, the center will field test the new training program in several coastal cities along the Gulf of Mexico over the next year and then distribute it through UNESCO.

"Around the world, nearly 50% of people live near the coast, and that number is expected to double," notes Kala Vairavamoorthy, director of the Patel Center. "It's also a very vulnerable population."

Also on the calendar for 2012 is the Coastal Cities Summit set for April 30 to May 2 at the Hilton Bayfront, sponsored by the International Ocean Institute. The last summit, held in 2008, attracted about 250 participants from 22 countries. "The goal is to look for practical solutions to climate change and sea level rise," said Muller-Karger.